Probability Theory As Extended Logic

Edwin T. Jaynes was one of the first people to realize that probability theory, as originated by Laplace, is a generalization of Aristotelian logic that reduces to deductive logic in the special case that our hypotheses are either true or false. This web site has been established to help promote this interpretation of probability theory by distributing articles, books and related material. As Ed Jaynes originated this interpretation of probability theory we have a large selection of his articles, as well as articles by a number of other people who use probability theory in this way:

• E. T. Jaynes: Jaynes' book on probability theory is now in its second printing. The publisher, Cambridge, requested the version of the book that was online be removed to avoid copyright problems. Jaynes' book is available from Amazon here in the US and from Amazon in the UK. We have a selection of Dr. Jaynes' articles, and the first three chapters from Jaynes' book on probability theory are now online as a pdf file or as a postscript file. A typed publication quality version of his unpublished book titled "Probability Theory, With Applications in Science and Engineering" that was being prepared for publication in the mid 1970's is available. Additionally, a copy of his music book, a selection of his unpublished, works, a selection of his book reviews, and a tribute to him are still available online. Finally, the Washington University Library has posted a copy of Jaynes' obituary that was published in physics Today.

• Phil Gregory: We have two article by Phil Gregory and Tom Loredo and several others by Phil. These article are on the application of probability theory to the problem of estimating the frequency of oscillation of a non-sinusoidal signal in data that consists of counts. You can find out a bit more about Phil by visiting his home page at the University of British Columbia and you can buy a copy of Phil's book from Amazon.

• Tom Loredo: We have Tom Loredo's excellent tutorial on probability theory. It was presented at the Dartmouth meeting of the International Society for the study of Maximum Entropy and Bayesian methods. Other works by Tom Loredo.

• David MacKay: We have three papers by David MacKay. These papers cover a broad range of topics and we direct you to the appropriate directory for more on them. Other works by David MacKay.

• D. S. Sivia: We have six papers by Dr. Devinder Sivia on the application of Bayesian probability theory to spectral analysis, analyzing quasielastic neutron scattering data, and extracting Structure-Factor amplitudes from powder diffraction data. For more about D. S. Sivia visit the Data Analysis and Visualization Group's home page.

• Stephen Gull: We have two papers by Steve Gull. The first is a general survey of Bayesian methods with an application to determining the expansion order in a polynomial expansion. The second is on straight-line fitting and is the article that spurred Ed Jaynes' attempt on the same problem. You can find out a bit more about Steve Gull by visiting Cambridge University.

• Rainer Fischer runs the Bayesian data analysis group at the Max-Plank-Institut and over the last few years, he and Volker Dose, has put together what is, in my opinion, one of the finest Bayesian groups on earth. I have managed to locate a few of his articles and I have modified a copy of the bibliography located on his web site to download these papers. You can find out more about Data Analysis Working Group here.

• G. Larry Bretthorst: I have posted my book, "Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and Parameter Estimation." The previous hyperlink will download a pdf version of my book. A gzip compressed postscript version of my book is also available. A selection of my articles is also available, these include two tutorials on probability theory.

  A new version of the Bayesian Analysis Software with a Java based GUI is available. See the Bayesian Analysis Software home page for a description of the software and, for the present time, contact me if you would like to install the software.

Finally, Ali Mohammad-Djafari is co-organizing MaxEnt 2010 in Chamonix France. Here is a link to the MaxEnt web site http://maxent2010.inrialpes.fr/.

IMPORTANT CONFERENCE DATES
Conference Date: July 4-9
Abstract Deadline: April 11
Papers due: June 20
Reservation open: January 15

This site is being maintained by:
Larry Bretthorst
Dept. Of Chemistry and Radiology
Washington University
St. Louis MO 63130

Phone: 314 362-9994

All questions concerning this site should be directed to him.